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The Big Flip: A Deep Dive Look at the Supply Side of the 2020 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania and Its Implications
The Big Flip meticulously documents the epic saga of mail-in voting in Pennsylvania’s 2020 Presidential Election.
Though Donald Trump had won this pivotal state in a close contest against Hilary Clinton in 2016, the state flipped back to the Democrats in 2020 in an election distinguished by the introduction of no-excuse mail-in voting. As in other battleground states, the 2020 outcome in Pennsylvania was associated with a huge margin for Joe Biden among mail-in voters.
The introduction of no-excuse mail-in voting in 2020 expanded the “supply-side” of the election process. The new supply-side dimensions encompass the mechanics and procedures by which voters apply for mail-in ballots; their applications are processed; and the ballots are distributed, returned, and tallied. These added dimensions bear an assortment of election security vulnerabilities.
A major part of this book consists of a multifaceted statistical exploration using publicly available data from the election supplemented by data obtained through a Pennsylvania Right-to-Know Law (RTKL) request.
The legislative history of mail-in voting in the state is also reviewed, along with other institutional and circumstantial details. The book also highlights the kinds of irregularities that “no-excuse” mail-in voting may facilitate.
The data exploration reveals a remarkable landscape — a poorly illuminated space from which arose odd statistical patterns—a twilight zone, of sorts — although there is no direct evidence that the integrity of the election was compromised.
Regardless of whether or to what degree the state’s 2020 election was marred by irregularities, a concerted effort should be made to rule out the possibility of a compromised election going forward.
Preventive measures, including correcting and updating voter registration records, closing cybersecurity gaps, incorporating more controls into the ballot application and collection processes, and instituting real-time monitoring of data are discussed in the closing chapter of the book.
Thus, this book is simultaneously about the Pennsylvania experience and issues of election integrity and credibility it raises, and ways to bolster credibility going forward.
As such, it should be of interest to readers of any political affiliation, in Pennsylvania or other states, who have concerns regarding the status quo.
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